Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
